Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his third season with the Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.
Chicago Bears (+3) over DETROIT LIONS
This line was Lions -1¹/₂ most of the summer until Chicago coach Matt Nagy announced he was going with Mitchell Trubisky as his starting QB over Nick Foles, and the oddsmakers showed their disrespect by moving it to Lions -3. However, that puts us on the Bears as live underdogs, as they have the better overall team (certainly on defense) and have beaten the Lions in four straight meetings over the past two seasons, so they certainly have their number. Though we like the added insurance of the +3 in case of a push, I also recommend the Bears at +130 or better on the money line to pull the outright upset.
Cleveland Browns (+7¹/₂) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
It was just 12 months ago that the Browns were getting all the hype and actually favored to win the AFC North. The Browns remind me of the 49ers, who were hyped in 2018 only to have a disappointing season before living up to their potential in 2019. There isn’t that much difference between these two teams from a talent perspective (certainly not more than a touchdown), so take the points the bookmakers are giving us. The public is expecting the Ravens to be as dominant as they were last year, but we’re pretty sure teams have been studying film on the Ravens’ unique offensive scheme this whole offseason and will be better prepared for Lamar Jackson & Co. Even if the Browns aren’t able to get the win, they should stay within a TD for the cover.
Dave Tuley’s 2019 betting record: 21-19-1.
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